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Residential market in Poland after the first quarter of 2009

Data available after the first quarter of 2009 confirm that the developers in the main cities in Poland are quickly adjusting to the new market conditions.
In all agglomerations, the developers have drastically reduced the number of investments started, first of all due to the limitations in banks’ financing of that business field as well as the decrease of demand. As a result, the number of apartments launched to the market in the first quarter of 2009 is nearly 5 times lower as compared to the number of apartments launched in the first quarter of 2007 and over 3 times lower than the numbers for the first quarter 2008. The offer prices in the first quarter of 2009 decreased on the average by 13% as compared to the first quarter of 2008. Transaction prices are on the average lower by 10-15% from the offer prices. Due to thus reduced price levels, in Warsaw and Krakow the sales level has started to increase as compared to numbers noted in the December / January period. However it still remains on the lowest point noted in approximately ten years.
It is worth to point out that in Krakow, within the previous three quarters the number of apartments sold has been higher than the number of apartments introduced to the market, which may indicate that developers in Krakow have adjusted their operations to the crisis conditions. On the other hand, the market in Łódź became significantly smaller, since unlike in other cities, it had a rather exotic character when it came to the supply side. It seems to have been oversaturated by non-standard offers (including lofts, downtown locations, projects addressed to investors) while at the same time the offer addressed to young families of average financial status remained insufficient.
Despite the low sales level, for the second consecutive quarter the volume of the offer in the analyzed agglomerations has decreased. This happens not only because new projects are very scarce, but also due to the fact that some investments are being withdrawn from the market. The aggregated offer in the six markets amounts to 33 760 residential units. At the same time, the share of ready apartments in the offer is growing in all cities. Only in Warsaw it has not yet exceeded the level of 10%, while in Poznań and Wrocław it has already reached the level of 30%. There is a notable trend of buying ready apartments or units which are to be completed soon. Approximately 75% of apartments sold in the first quarter are units completed in 2008 or planned for completion in the year 2009. Developers adjust their operations to clients’ preferences and aim for commercialization at a latter stage of construction, which is signified by the disparity between the number of started projects and the number of projects launched for sale.
In the view of clients’ apprehension when it comes to buying apartments under construction, the abundance of the offer turns out to be an illusion, especially in the case of most sought after apartments. For instance, in Warsaw among almost 1400 apartments ready to move in, there are currently less then fifty two-room units located within less than 2 km from the underground line. However, over a half of them have prices significantly exceeding 500 000 PLN.

Added by admin April 11, 2010 (10:28PM)

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