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REAS in the Polish Seym

Kazimierz Kirejczyk gave a lecture “Situation in the residential market. The current state and possible dangers” during the anniversary session of the Permanent Representation of the Polish Builders’ Congress, which took place on May 13th in the Polish Seym. Kazimierz Kirejczyk emphasized that the residential market is quickly adjusting to the crisis situation: The offer prices in the first quarter of 2009 have gone down by 13% as compared to the first quarter of 2008, while transaction prices are on average lower by 10-15% from offer prices. Due to such reduced price levels, in some cities the sales began to increase as compared to the period between December 2008 and January 2009. The price policy also reflects adjustments to the program „Family on its own”. Projects with unrealistic price levels are being withdrawn from implementation.
The developers are suspending the launch of new investments – in the whole country, after the first quarter the decrease exceeds 55%, and in Warsaw it exceeds 60%. At the same time, we are observing an increasing discrepancy between the number of units with issued construction permits and those whose construction has been started. The phenomenon of limiting the number of new investments will continue at least to the end of the current year, though it is more probable that it will prevail also in the year 2010. The key issue here is the developers’ ability to gain financing.
If the situation does not change, in the year 2010 the number of apartments offered in most cities will decrease, reaching its medium-term minimum. When the banks resume granting mortgage loans, once again we will start to buy „holes in the ground”, causing the prices to rapidly increase.
The breakdown in the residential market may also have serious consequences for the economy, exceeding far beyond the development business. Apart from the danger of bankruptcy of several developers’ companies, one of the main threats is the collapse of the contractors’ market – massive shift of small and medium-sized companies to renovation services and infrastructural projects is an unrealistic assumption. Moreover, the demand for construction materials and products will decrease. The abovementioned phenomena will bring about reductions in employment in banks, developers’ and construction companies, producers of building materials, warehouses and stores selling building and finishing materials for apartments and houses. It will be significant for the job market in the country.
The cycles in real estate sector come repeatedly, however it is the role of the state to mitigate, and not intensify, the consequences of these cycles. When the private sector limits its activity, it should be helped in maintaining a reasonable level of production – in our case – through supporting the financing system, while the construction output financed from public means should be increased.
It is worth to look in an innovative way at the forms of social buildings constructed in small and medium-sized cities. The recommended buildings should hold four families and be adjusted to the needs of families with children, without common areas. Such buildings can be constructed in part from prefabricated elements due to the costs as well as the requirement to finish the project’s implementation within one fiscal year.
During the session, other papers were delivered by Janusz Piechociński (MP) and Wiesław Szczepański (MP), Minister Olgierd Dziekoński, Adam Kowalewski - Chairman of the Board of the Foundation in Support of Local Democracy and Professor Piotr Witakowski.

Added by admin April 11, 2010 (10:59PM)

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