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Primary market in Wroclaw - analyses of market situation after first quarter 2009

Residential stock in Wrocław (approximately 250 000 units) is not of a very high quality and a large portion of it (ca.1/3) is constituted by apartments built in a precast concrete technology in 1970’s and 1980’s. Such apartments appear increasingly frequently in the secondary market, since their hitherto inhabitants are searching for new flats characterized by a higher standard. The first quarter of the year 2009 was still a period of low activity on the Wrocław market, however the situation proved better than it could be expected based on the very poor outcome in the fourth quarter of 2008. In the first quarter of 2009, approximately 800 apartments were introduced to the Wrocław market, and while the number is lower by 20% from figures from the year before, still it is twice bigger than in the fourth quarter of the year 2008. The new offer featured exclusively apartments from the popular segment, which resulted in the fact that the average price of apartments introduced to the market dropped below 6 900 PLN/sq.m., thus reaching its lowest level in two years. The beginning of the year brought also an increase in the share of popular apartments in the offer. They constitute currently 84% of the offer, while luxury apartments make up only 16%. Despite the weaker market situation, sales of new residential units in Wrocław at the beginning of the year 2009 was relatively good. The demand in 2008 proved that compared to other Polish cities, Wrocław is in a reasonably good position and the quotient of yearly sales in the year 2008 and the offer volume at the end of that year amounted to over 90%. The first quarter of 2009 did not bring a deeper drop in demand, since over 700 apartments were sold in this period, a number comparable to the one from the previous year. A slight surplus of apartments introduced to the market over the sales volume, considering the fact that no investments were suspended, caused that the offer after the first quarter of 2009 remained on the level comparable to the one at the end of the year 2008. At the beginning of April, in Wrocław there were approximately 4 800 new residential units for sale. The analysis of sales shows that the largest demand was noted for ready or almost ready apartments. Even 81% of new residential units sold in the first quarter were apartments completed in the second half of the year 2008 or planned for completion in the year 2009. At the same time, the best selling apartments were priced in the range between 5 and 7 000 PLN/sq.m. A new phenomenon in the offer is the increasing number of apartments priced below 5 000 PLN/sq.m. which are also frequently selected by the customers.
The residential construction output planned by developers for the years 2008-2009 (over 11 000 residential units) is too high considering the current absorption possibilities of the Wrocław market, which is reflected by the increasing number of ready and unsold apartments. Compared to the level noted at the end of the year 2008, the number has doubled and currently more than 25% of the offer is constituted by ready apartments (approximately 1 300 residential units). Despite a relatively stable absorption rate, the market is not able to take in the developers’ construction output planned for the years 2008-2009. In the year 2007 the number of apartments constructed by developers and housing cooperatives in Wrocław reached the level of 3 300 residential units (a result similar to the one noted in 2006). According to data supplied by the Polish Main Statistical Office (GUS), in the year 2008 we witnessed a significant increase of completed apartments and their number exceeded 5 300. The results of REAS monitoring, based on the companies’ declarations from the end of the first quarter of 2009, show that in 2009 the number of completed apartments will be lower, reaching approximately 4 900 apartments, which indicates a reduction by almost 500 units in comparison to developers’ declarations from the fourth quarter of 2008. This results from the investors’ tendency to postpone the completion date of the investments to the year 2010.
In the Wrocław market in the first quarter of 2009 we saw general price reductions. The average offer price in the market has dropped by almost 7% compared to the previous quarter and reached the level of 7 000 PLN/sq.m., which indicates that we are witnessing another quarter of significant price reductions. Considerable price drops were also noted in luxury apartments’ segment. Within the period of one quarter, their average price has been decreased by over 10% and amounted to 10 200 PLN/sq.m. In popular apartments’ segment price reductions are less visible, since they were additionally absorbed by the introduction of relatively expensive investments characterized by a higher standard. As a result, the average price in popular apartments’ segment in the first quarter dropped by 2% and is now slightly below the level of 6 400 PLN/sq.m. The offer is dominated by apartments from the price range between 5-7 000 PLN/sq.m., which constitute almost 60% of the offer. Reassuming, we may observe that the first quarter of the year 2009 brought about many changes on the Wrocław market. Price reductions resulted in changes in the offer structure and influenced positively the clients, while partly mitigating negative effects of the crisis. The developers are trying to readjust their operations to the new circumstances by matching the supply to clients’ preferences, postponing the dates of completion of projects in early stages of implementation and executing the more advanced investments. Adam Kulpa Junior Consultant

Added by admin April 11, 2010 (10:29PM)

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