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Polish residential market 2Q2009 - Different cities, different scenarios

Increased sales, still very few new investments, gradual price stabilization - that is how one can describe in brief the residential market in six largest Polish agglomerations. It is interesting to notice that the situation in specific markets is very diverse. REAS published the results of residential market research conducted in six Polish cities (Warsaw, Krakow, Łódź, Poznań, the Tri-City, Wrocław) in the second quarter of the year 2009. In the six markets analyzed by REAS in the second quarter of 2009 the developers launched for sale approximately 3,700 apartments, while at the same time 5,800 units found buyers. As a result the number of apartments remaining in the offer in six largest Polish markets has diminished for the third quarter in the row and amounted to over 31,000 units (a decrease by approximately 20% from the maximum in the third quarter of the year 2008). In the second quarter the impression of a significant improvement of the sales rate was common among developers. The number of apartments sold within this quarter has indeed increased by over 30% and amounted to approximately 5,800, however it is still only 80% of the long-term average. At the same time the decline in the total number of units in the offer has additionally deepened the impression of good sales - in the second quarter developers sold 17.1% of units available in the market at the end of the first quarter, while in the first quarter the analogous index amounted to only 11.8 %, which indicates growth by approximately 45%. Nearly one fourth of the offered apartments are ready units. Their share in the offer increased by six percentage points, however a dynamic growth of ready and unsold apartments is witnessed only in Warsaw and Krakow. It seems that the biggest slump in prices is already behind us. In the second quarter the decrease of offer prices (by approximately 5%) was noted only in Warsaw. In Poznań the prices remained basically on an unchanged level. In other cities the prices grew: in Łódź and the Tri-City by approximately 1.5%, in Krakow by 3.3% and in Wrocław by 5.4%. Limiting the number of new investments to 30% of the long-term average resulted in a decrease of the offer volume, which nonetheless remains very high. However the suspension of banking financing might in the long run translate into an excessive reduction of the supply and result in another price boom. It is worth to point out that developers in specific markets reacted differently to the drop in sales, which influenced the current situation on these markets as well as prognoses for their future. In Poznań the sales decreased rapidly already in the first quarter of 2008. Since that time, the developers have been gradually lowering the prices - compared to the maximum from the second quarter of 2007 they have dropped by nearly 25%. At the same time the Poznań developers withdrew unattractive investments from the market and significantly lowered the number of new projects launched for sale. As a result, the fourth quarter of 2008, which was the worst period in the remaining five cities, did not cause decreased sales in Poznań, while in the second quarter of 2009 the sales significantly increased and reached the level noted at the end of the year 2007 - which was the effect of executing the „postponed" demand. The consequence of a low number of apartments launched to the market, adjusted to the demand, is the rapid decrease of the offer volume - by 35% from the maximum noted in the third quarter of the year 2008. The situation in Łódź is completely different. In the period of boom the market was dependent to a large extent on the demand „imported" from the outside, which is why the prices reached a level unadjusted to the possibilities of local buyers. The outflow of investment demand did not cause a significant reaction of local developers - research of the local market does not show any significant price reductions (they dropped only by 8% compared to the maximum noted in the first quarter of the year 2008), or limiting the number of new projects. The introduction of two big and relatively expensive investments in the second quarter combined with very low sales results has caused a rapid growth of the offer volume to its highest level in the history of this market. Despite the similar volume of the offer, the perspectives for both markets are entirely different. In the Łódź market the supply is completely unadjusted to the demand - unless the developers change their politics, the problems in this market will only get worse. On the other hand, the situation in the Poznań residential market may be currently perceived as healthy. The only concern is that Poznań is a city with the highest share of investments funded through bank credit - the freezing of financing for developers by banks may make it impossible to start new projects in the rate adjusted to the market needs.

Added by admin April 11, 2010 (11:05PM)

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