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Kazimierz Kirejczyk: Modest revival - is it a signal that the crisis is nearing its end

Preliminary results of the monitoring of residential investments executed on a regular basis by REAS indicate that in the second quarter of the year 2009 the situation in the residential market has significantly improved. In the Warsaw market, nearly 2 000 new transactions were reported, while returns, of which there was a large number in the previous study, this time amounted to ca. 10% of the units sold. However, the number of sold apartments remains lower than the long-term average for the Warsaw market, which was approximately 3 000 transactions per quarter. Moreover, new investments are also in short supply. The number of ca. 600 new residential units introduced to the market is dramatically low for a second quarter of the year, when usually most constructions have been started. Nonetheless, thanks to that figure, as well as the fact of withdrawing certain new investments from the market, the volume of the offer has significantly decreased. Can the modest revival witnessed in the primary market be interpreted as a signal that the crisis is nearing its end? Can the clients still count on the fact that the prices will continue decreasing, or are the developers to be glad that further reductions are not likely? Can it be true that the biggest danger lies in the lack of faith in our market’s potential? How can we predict the future when every day we are being bombarded with contradictory information on the condition of the Polish and global economy? Let us try to sustain our analysis on a few stable support points. In order to create a forecast for the next couple of years in the current situation, the key factors are assumptions regarding the macro-economic condition of the country and the capital city, the scale and mechanisms of granting mortgage loans, as well as the policy regarding financing of new developers’ investments, availability of sources of capital other than bank loans, the situation in the job market, as well as – to a large degree – how the social attitudes will develop, including most of all the attitudes among target groups for the residential market. In a longer, mid-term perspective, we need to consider also the demographic situation in the agglomeration. Although it is hard to believe that the Polish economy continues to develop, it is easier to accept that it is in a better condition than the large number of economies in the neighboring countries. For people viewing the economy from the residential market perspective, where the breakdown in sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 was catastrophical, it is hard to believe there are branches of economy where the sales in the first year half of 2009 was significantly better than twelve months before. It is important, because the residential demand is determined by the situation in many different economical sectors. However, even if the Polish economy enters the recession phase, the situation in Warsaw alone ought to look better than the average in the country, both in terms of the GDP growth and unemployment rate. At least that was the case during the previous economic slowdown in the year 2002. It is hard to feel optimistic regarding the situation in the mortgage loan market. Though the sub-prime phenomenon generally does not concern Poland, and the Polish banks – if we are to believe their assurances – did not invest in toxic American mortgage bonds, many factors indicate that the slowdown of credit activity which began in the fourth quarter of the year 2008 is of a structural nature and despite the gradual improvement, it will not see a spectacular change within the next couple of quarters. The drop in credit activity will be connected not only with the banks’ policy, but also with a more restrictive approach of the potential buyers to incurring debt. This phenomenon is likely to intensify until the end of the year 2009 due to the worsening situation in the job market (increased unemployment rate, stagnation or reduced incomes) and will continue to occur in the year 2010. The lower mortgage loan scale will probably be accompanied by lack of crediting for the purchase of the land, as well as bigger difficulties with obtaining financing for most developers. It is also rather unlikely for the government to implement effective measures aiding the situation in the branch. The only program supporting the demand in the residential market will probably remain the subsidization of interest on mortgage loans for young households, the so-called „Family’s Own Home” program. The impact of that program on the primary residential market in Warsaw will be limited, as long as the subsidizing includes also units purchased in the secondary market and individually constructed single family homes. The second year half of the year 2009 will be a speed-racing stage for the developers. In that period, the market will become clearly divided into leaders, who report relatively good sales and who will be looking for a bargain on interesting grounds and those who will definitely terminate their operations or avoid the breakdown by accepting huge losses. The year 2010 should bring a change of attitudes in the companies who survive – on the reduced market, we will once again witness the phenomenon of consolidation.

Added by admin April 11, 2010 (11:04PM)

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